Hospital overwhelm headlines have fallen away – and yet the number of those in hospital has not changed since Nov…👇🏼
The below visualisations are taken from various NHS England data sources – principally the weekly and monthly NHS COVID Hospital Activity time series reports.
🤔 The most striking observation is that beds occupied by PCR/LFD Positive patients (i.e. covid cases) has risen and fell between Nov-Feb, and yet overall bed occupancy has remained static and below 2019 figures.
‼️ In Dec-Jan we were getting inundated with headlines and emotional MSM pieces about just how overwhelmed the NHS was. Now, in mid Feb, the noise has faded into the background…
🤷🏻♂️ What is it? Are we uniquely overwhelmed due to COVID-19 or not? We can’t declare a crisis in Dec/Jan and then forget about it in Feb when the overall hospital utilisation figures have not dropped.
🤫What has changed is the number of patients in hospital who have had a PCR or LFD positive COVID test. What has also changed is the massive pivot to using LFD tests, that have a 19x lower current positivity rate…
❓One can’t help to see no material change in acute illness admissions this winter. Therefore, how much of this winter COVID story is #misdiagnosis of otherwise seasonally normal acute illness?
This is not to take away from the pressure that the NHS are under due to the intensive COVID-related policies and associated operational handicapping. We’ve previously shared an NHS operational mgmt employee insight on the intense pressure they are under (link in comment below).👇🏼
🔹There is a robust drop in COVID-positive patients – down from 34K to 23K
🔹Total, G&A and ICU Bed Occupancy is proportionally consistent with levels of prior years, even though there are ~10K fewer beds available.
🔹 Staff absences is still unseasonably high. 92K employees are absent, 42K of which are due to Test & Trace and/or COVID illness.
🔹 Nobody ever talks about how many PCR/LFD Positive people are discharged from hospitals – i.e. people recover and go home after one to several days. The super majority walk out of the front door. In recent weeks discharges are exceeding admissions.
Time for honest journalism?
🏥 So, as the vaccine rollout dominates all media coverage and government messaging, I thought someone should give you an update on the hospital situation.
Of course, good or mild news doesn’t sell. Especially if it doesn’t advance an agenda.
😍 The single exception to this rule being vaccines. We all loooove a vaccine victory… even if there is no substance or direct proof of public health benefit in said story.
Time for some real honest journalism perhaps?
Whether it’s good, bad, inconvenient or indifferent…
Graphs and tables from the COVID+ Insights Dashboard, which includes NHS Trust level searchable data. Underlying data from various NHS sources – last update 11th Feb 2021.
Links to the Dashboard, an insider insight the NHS Pressures, and a visual on the LFD Test pivot can be found below 👇🏼
- COVID+ DASHBOARD
- NHS INSIDER INSIGHT INTO PRESSURES
- NHS HOSPITAL PRESSURE – THE UGLY TRUTH
- THE LFD TEST PIVOT
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