Latest update & observations today from ONS on total and #covid related mortality, plus a full dashboard update 👇🏼
KEY OBSERVATIONS:
🔹COVID-positive & Total Mortality continuing to decline
🔹 With the year almost done, comparing Deaths Per Thousand for age groups is telling. Under 65, COVID-related deaths round down to 0. Compare the over 65 age group to the total
🔹COVID-related deaths equate to 11.7-14.2% of total mortality in the over 65 age groups.
🔹Testing volume has surged to 430K per day!
🔹Test Positivity Rate is escalating once again, whilst the Deaths per Positive Test continues to decline. Increased transmission and lower virulence, more dead viral fragments, or higher Ct used?
🔹OR… are we seeing normal respiratory viral presence seasonality? We normally see a double hump of respiratory viruses autumn/winter, especially with coronaviruses.
🔹There has been an excess of 63K deaths thus far in England 2020 when compared to 5 year average, totalling 580K deaths. When compared to 5 year maximums, the excess is 42K.
🔹The sickest elderly adults are in Care Home settings. And yet, since June there have been NO EXCESS deaths. As expected, 57K have died in Care Home from June, with 5.6K having a COVID-positive test – no extra burden.
🔹34K extra Home deaths that were NOT COVID tallied thus far this year.
🔹Crude estimates would suggest that the true excess of deaths directly related to COVID-19 is 25-29k. The remainder caused by restrictions – such as decisions to seriously restrict access to healthcare, and a decline in general health.
👀 There’s a lot more to explore.
Individual NHS Trust insights, key stats associated to your tiered location, age-related mortality curves, and other NHS insights.
You can find all these on the AdapNation COVID+ Insights dashboard. Link in comment below 👇🏼
#FactsNotFear
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SOURCES:
ONS, PHE COVID Dashboard, FHM, and NHS. Direct data files accessible within each chart.
- COVID+ Insights Dashboard
- RESPIRATORY VIRUS SEASONALITY
- TIER STATUS CHECK: https://adapnation.io/covid-insights-extra/
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