Seasonal Patterns of Respiratory Viruses

2 min read


🔄 STUDY THIS! 2020 is the year when we forgot about the presence & seasonality of all other viruses… 👇🏼

👹…but be rest assured, there is plenty of fodder here to create the next pandemic. My money is on a “deadly Rhinovirus” that needs a global vaccine at some point in the not too distant future.

Study these graphs

🦠 What these graphs show is the prevalence and seasonality of various ENDEMIC common human viruses that cause respiratory infections and disease.

👁 As you can see, they all have their own pattern and timing. Pay close attention to the humps of Rhinovirus (part of the picornavirus family), Coronaviruses and Influenza.

🇫🇷 The top and right graphs were the result of work in Paris between 2011 to 2016. They evaluated 7,200 hospital samples from those with serious respiratory infections for a number of identified viruses.

🇨🇳 The left graph is a similar analysis in 2009/2010 in Jinan, China, that has a similar norther latitude to Spain.

The French work is interesting, as they also show the changes in prevalence across the 5 years of the study. You can find those graphs within the study linked in the comments.👇🏼

Viral pathogen seasonality

Let me direct your attention to a few things:

🦠 Rhinovirus / Enterovirus – dominant prevalence, and a big driver in the common cold. This is what drives much of the sickness in Sept/Oct as the kids return to school.

🦠 Coronaviruses – We’d expect to se a bump in October, settling down in November, and resurging to a peak in Jan followed by a slow tapering off into spring.

🦠 Influenza – Shows seasonal spike that starts in December and surges up to a substantial peak in Feb and March. Funny how this seasonal pattern matches the shape an timing of the COVID-19 peak in EU…

🌧 Jan/Feb – You can see how these months, the coldest, darkest, wettest, have high prevalence of a range of viruses. And these are only a subset we know of and have suitable tests.

⚖️ It’s US, not THEM – Viral prevalence is not the major problem though… its the fact that we let ourselves become more susceptible to serious infection within these autumn/winter months through lifestyle and diet choices.

🇨🇳 China – They see slightly different timing, with Coronaviruses surging a little later, and Influenza/Parainfluenza dominating.

What it means for the UK

🇬🇧 What this all means for the UK is that we have a bumpy road ahead into April/May.

😫 Our Govt are hell bent on milking this Public Health crisis for as long as possible, and be rest assured that ANYTHING that can be coded up under the banner of COVID-19… will be.

👩🏾‍⚕️ Speaking to specialists in the NHS and in microbiology in particular, they are more than aware of these seasonal patterns, and are also aware that MASS MISDIAGNOSIS is happening now, and will get 10x worse during the next few months.

Would it not make sense for:

1️⃣ Only those with heavy symptoms to be tested, with all inpatients too due to hospitals being the dominant threat vector for infection❓

2️⃣ For all expressed Respiratory Infections known to Govt to be tested for ALL of the known respiratory viruses❓

3️⃣ For repeat confirmation tests to be performed for SARS CoV2 positive tests, to ensure they have identified an active infection versus dead viral fragments❓

🧠To anyone with a pure scientific and informed mind, the answer to all three would be a resounding YES.

🤷🏻‍♂️ So, why is this NOT happening?

Answers on a postcard…





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