COVID-19 England Deaths Update – 10th Nov

This weeks #InContext update on All Cause and COVID-related mortality. Data as of 10th Nov 👇🏼

PNEUMONIA UPDATE:

🤧 Last week ONS updated their Pneumonia/Influenza weekly reporting to include ALL mentions. This exposes just how much crossover and duplication there was and is in the reporting.

👍🏼 It stands to reason that those with COVID-19 or similar illnesses (Cold/Flu) will predominantly include Pneumonia on the death cert if they are a genuinely serious case experiencing respiratory difficulties.

🗻 As such, with this update from ONS, Pneumonia/Influenza deaths are much closer to the 5 year average, and you can see the significant hump aligned to the Epidemic peak.

🤔 However, what we DO NOT KNOW explicitly, is what is the crossover, and what were the top direct causes of death for COVID-19 patients who DID NOT have Pneumonia mentions.

🤞🏼 We (AdapNation) have submitted a number of FOI’s to ONS related to these questions, and should hopefully have clarity in a few weeks.

OTHER THINGS TO NOTE:

🔹 Excess Mortality is notably above the 5YR average for 2 weeks now, but it’s not a material increase. There is a good chance the excess will reduce next week (ending 6th Nov)

🔹 The COVID-related deaths growth rate is showing steady signs of decline, which would fall in line with an expected #coronavirus endemic prevalence plateau in Oct before resurging again in Dec. *

🔹 Excess deaths at HOME continue its year-long worrying pattern. We’ve lost 110K people in their home since early March, where only 2,676 were COVID-related. This equates to an E&W Home excess of 31,684.

🔹 Contrast this with a continued pattern of below average Hospital Deaths. Including the Epidemic peak, Hospitals have seen only a 5K excess in deaths.

🔹 The #coronavirus PCR Test positivity rate seems to be plateauing, having shifted gears in late October.

🔹 The Deaths to Positive Test ratio (i.e. virulence) continues to hover at low levels, currently at 1.2%, and also showing signs of declining as of early Nov.

🔹 Total Mortality data indicates COVID-19 over coding, as we are seeing a general theme o lower total mortality compared to the 5 year average when you exclude the COVID-related deaths.

🔹 All English regions are in line with their respective 5 year mortality averages, other than the North West which is bearing the brunt of excess death burden. London, on the other hand, is lower than average.

🔹 Over 65’s represented 84% of the Total Mortality figures, and 91% of the COVID-related figures for this last week. 119 people between 25-65 died in England & Wales with a COVID-19 PCR Positive test.

🔹 We will re-perform an age-related excess mortality analysis shortly. On last review a couple of weeks ago, the excess burden this year came from the 15-60 age category – likely due to the pressures of this year.

IN SUMMARY:

🧘🏻 In SUMMARY, we’re seeing a little extra Total Mortality pressure over the last couple of weeks, but the numbers continue to fall within acceptable ranges.

It is not possible with the data currently shared by ONS to understand where that excess is coming from.

🤷🏻‍♂️ Is it from ADDITIONAL Respiratory Infections, or is from Worsening Health due to the restrictions imposed on the the Country this year?

❌ There are no strong indicators to suggest that what we are seeing is anything more than robust Seasonal Endemic Pressure, perhaps with a little extra burden coming from an increase in susceptibility due to declining health status from Govt restrictions.

🏥 Tomorrow, NHS release their monthly detailed report on COVID and Non-COVID Hospital Bed utilisation. From here we can see if they are under excess seasonal pressure. All data thus far has suggested this year is a typical one for the NHS… pressured, MASSIVE backlogs, but normal.

#FactsNotFear

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SOURCES:

ONS Weekly Deaths Data, DHSC COVID-19 Dashboard Data, and FHM COVID Data – all dated 10th Nov 2020.

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