Total & COVID-19 Mortality Age Group Analysis

Probably the most important #covid graphs & data to really study & understand this week 👇🏼

Page 1️⃣ represent the age groups least affected by the covid epidemic, and Page 2️⃣ are those who  are more likely to succumb to all causes of disease and death.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 All the data is from ONS for England and Wales, and plot weekly death figures during 2020. Please note the Y axis scale, up to 90 deaths on under 14’s chart, and up to 12,000 for the over 85’s.

📈 These graphs aim to observe the death patterns from the end of July (week 31) onwards, to see what effect COVID and Restricted Life is having since deaths bottomed out seasonally during the summer.

What you are seeing in these graphs are:

🔸Weekly Total Mortality in RED, compared to the 5YR average in grey.

🔸 Weekly COVID-related deaths (COVID mentioned on the death cert due to positive test) in BLUE.

🔸 The COVID-related curves were superimposed onto the 5YR averages and aligned to week 31, in order to show similarity to 5YR trend.

🔸 Excess Deaths from Week 31 onwards are highlighted in light RED AREAS.

🔸 The tables show the Excess/Deficit in Total Mortality as wells COVID-related Deaths, for both W31-W42 and W42 only.

INTERESTING OBSERVATIONS:

🔴 The COVID curves map PERFECTLY to the the 5YR Total Mortality curves across all ages – I mean completely perfect. This shows that seasonality is at play, not something bigger (e.g. second wave).

🔴 The Working Age groups of 15-44 and 45-65 are very concerning. 2020 is clearly taking it’s toll on people in the prime years of their life, and it’s not COVID-19.

🔴 As expected, the retirement age groups – 65-74, 75-84 & 85+ – are trending perfectly. COVID-related, 5YR average and Total Mortality are lined up incredibly well and following season patterns.

🔴 There is a small non-COVID excess in the retirement age groups, but not nearly as significant in the working age.

🔴 Interestingly, over 85’s have lost 213 LESS than the 5YR average, even though 1052 have died with COVID since Week 31.

🔴 Concerningly, we’re seeing a lift in Excess Mortality in all ages above 15 in the last 1-2 weeks, and yet it clearly is not due to the #coronavirus.

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😥These graphs paint a worrying picture. The demonstrate a trend in Restriction & Fear induced deaths, above and beyond expected seasonal patterns of infectious respiratory disease deaths.

😔 It is clear that ill effects of Govt & MSM meddling is now starting to really kick in. As days get shorter, darker and colder, combined with the misery and stress induced by our leadership, things are likely to get (avoidably) worse over the Autumn/Winter.

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SOURCE:

ONS England & Wales Deaths data from 27th Oct 2020.

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