The Deeply Flawed SAGE-Vallance Deaths Modelling

3 min read


This graph from Vallance over the weekend should never have seen the light of day, and yet it is used to justify Lockdown 👇🏼

👎🏼 Hopefully it doesn’t need much convincing for the average person to look at this and know this is utter fiction masquerading as science.

⛓ Vallance, Whitty and their SAGE ‘experts’ are all incredibly smart – and should know better. Dare I say it, this continued scientific deceit is criminal and it is justified to hope for a full criminal investigation into the actions of our ‘scientific advisors’ through 2020.

❌ This is the problem. As noted by Dr Yeadon and many others, the SAGE is clearly not equipped on matters related to infectious disease lifecycles, immune systems, effective immunity, and historical epidemic epidemiology.

🧮 Instead what we seem to have is a large team of ill-equipped statisticians producing R Numbers and wildly inaccurate Death and Case projections, that clearly are working within a vacuum, and without sufficient subject matter expertise on what they are attempting to model.

🤯 The most well know figure of course is Neil Fergusson. Can you believe we are still listening to him and his team? How many times over the last last couple decades can a man be wrong for us to start being cautious of his work?

What do the real experts say?

⏹ Subject matter experts all over the world have declared the Epidemic over in Europe since June – an assertion easy to make if you understand immunity and epidemic patterns.

〰️ There is a large consensus amongst SME’s who are not influenced by Govt grants, Health Institution job security, or safety in numbers, that have said all along that we are now at Endemic Equilibrium.

🤧 In simple terms, the virus is here to stay, and we will have annual winter resurgences akin to all other Common Cold and Influenza Like Illnesses.

😵 Those that believe in the possibility of a ‘Second Wave’ similar in scale and impact of Mar/April have been utterly indoctrinated by one simple statement – ‘The Spanish Flu’.

🔍 I’d urge you to do some research into the Spanish Flu – not least the strong assertion that the second wave was in actual fact a different disease entirely caused by something else. Or look at the 10+ epidemics over the last 70 years… never a second wave. 🤔

A more realistic outlook

🔴 The growing non-establishment SME consensus is that we will see something more like the dotted red line below during the course of the Flu Season in the UK.

😫 In actual fact, this projection assumes the same level of #CaseFraud that we are seeing currently, due to mass hyper testing of the general public with non-existent case definition and a deeply flawed test.

I.E. the significant OVER CODING of non-COVID deaths – be it acute injuries, chronic disease deaths and/or other forms of respiratory disease deaths.

Problems with the SAGE Vallance Deaths Modelling

📉 If there was a moratorium on our Testing Strategy, we would see COVID-related deaths plummet. 

⚠️ More testing is NOT THE SOLUTION. More testing IS THE PROBLEM.

😬 Just imagine how bad things will get when they release these even worse rapid tests onto the public over the next couple of weeks?

Don’s take my word for it…

👂🏼 Don’t take my word that this chart is a shambles. Read and listen to Prof Carl Heneghan from CEBM talk about the major issues here, and how a vote in parliament CANNOT be made with this aged and flawed modelling.




Graph from Vallance’s presentation delivered on Saturday night as part of the 2nd Lockdown press conference.

Check out the Telegraph, CEBM & Talk Radio piers from Prof Carl Heneghan regarding the many issues with the SAGE modelling output on Cases, Deaths, R and NHS demand. 👇🏼

Prof Carl Heneghan CEBM refuting these models:


The Original Facebook Post

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