NHS England Hospital Update & Deeper Dive

NHS England Hospital Trust Status updated with this weeks data + MK deeper dive 👇🏼

At the highest national level, we’re a touch over % occupancy levels when you compare to the lighter winter season of 2019/20 – both in overall bed occupancy and ICU bed occupancy.

🛏 However, bed stock levels as of end Sept were 10K down. Current bed stock levels will not be reported on for a while yet, but as makeshift wards and child ward takeovers have occurred over the last month or so, we can expect total bed occupancy % to be a touch lower when the data is in.

✅ That said, G&A and ICU Bed Occupancy stats leverage up-to-date data on bed stock levels and utilisation – updated weekly.

‼️ As you can see from the below excerpt, there are clearly some hospitals that are flirting with their upper limits. The hospital pressure is not homogenous across the country.

When we evaluate the Hospital pressure, we must consider much more than PCR Positive bed use and comparisons to seasonal averages.

🥵 The NHS is significantly handicapped at the moment due to a myriad of extra policies, plus the level of underlying sickness in their patients is notably higher due to a year of health suppression. 

👀 You can read an honest NHS workers account of the inputs that are causing increased NHS Hospital Pressure in the link within the comment below. 👇🏼

Furthermore, we must understand the data that sits behind these high-level utilisation percentages. The table we offer is a summary-level view – but the underlying data is there or you to explore if you have the willing to cross-reference ~4 NHS data files.

MILTON KEYNES DEEP DIVE

Let’s use Milton Keynes Trust as an example. In the graphic you can see the raw numbers that contribute to their high %’s. 👇🏼

🔽 They have higher % utilisation than last year, but they have 117 fewer beds in total and 79 fewer patients. So… LESS patients being cared for than last year, and last year was considered a mild/light flu season.

📈 Looking at their ICU figures, they are at 100% utilisation. That is never desirable operationally. In raw numbers, we’re talking about 7 ICU beds in use on average Jan 2020, to 26 ICU beds now. The % growth is high, but in absolute terms it’s another 19 beds being occupied.

🦠 Of those 26 beds, only 8 of them have a PCR Positive test (i.e. a COVID reported patient).

They have a total of 178 patients with PCR Positive tests in the hospital, and have diagnosed or admitted 114 patients with PCR Positive tests in the last 7 days.

📉 As you can see, their COVID Patients graph has been dropping, which means they are discharging more PCR Positive Patients than they are admitting.

😬 MK have ~290 Trust staff absent, ~170 of which due to COVID policies – that’s 60% of all absences.  They are experiencing a 7% staff absence rate. This makes a difficult situation much worse.

CONTEXT MATTERS

The point is, the detail and context matters. Both the detailed data, and a full appreciation of what policy-induced pressures NHS Hospitals are under is important in order to get a read of the situation.

🔍 Now, many NHS Trusts will be doing much better than Milton Keynes, and some will be doing worse. At an aggregate level the NHS is coping, but you should look to understand your local situation.

📉 The good news is, the hospital situation is simmering down – nationally and locally. You can see this by the COVID patient graphs per Trust below.

💣 Of course, the real pain has unfortunately just begun. The health of our nation has declined over the last 12 months, and the minimised lack of non-COVID diagnosis, care and treatment is a ticking time bomb.

⚠️ 200K+ people have been waiting over a year for treatment. Diagnosis of serious chronic diseases are so worryingly low. Best estimates suggest there are some 8M+ people in the NHS waiting list.

🥵 NHS staff are fatigued and in many cases burnt out. The road ahead for public health and our socialist healthcare system will be unsettling.

🙏🏼 THIS is where all the Govt’s energy must be going now. The clean up operation, and attempting to fix the millions of people that have been broken by the sustained interventions.

#factsnotfear

_____

SOURCES:

The below table and other in-context COVID visualisations are hosted on the AdapNation website. Linked below.

The data sources are all from official NHS time series and sitreps. The current EUC and COVID SitRep NHS pages are also listed below.👇🏼

•  SEARCH FOR YOUR LOCAL HOSP
• TRUTH ABOUT NHS HOSPITAL PRESSURE
• NHS UEC SITREPS
• NHS COVID HOSP ACTIVITY SITREPS

The Original Facebook Post