COVID-19: UK Flu Season Projections

3 min read


We’re in the calm before the unavoidable #coronavirus (media) storm. Truth will diffuse its effects on us.

#context matters. This post will provide some annual context, flu season context, and lastly #coronavirus projections.

〰️ We are now in the ENDEMIC phase of this #coronavirus. It’s here to stay, like flu and common cold. You wouldn’t be aware of the impacts of flu normally. This year, however, you absolutely will…

Annual Mortality Context

🟢 In England & Wales, we lose ~530,000 people each year, 85% of which are over 65 years old. 

🟢 The North East has the highest mortality rates, and the leading cause of death is age related – Dementia and Alzheimers (12.5%), followed by heart disease.

🟢 Between 5-50 years old, the top causes of death are Suicide, Injury or Poisoning, followed by breast cancer for older women. This may shock you…

🟢 We lose ~70,000 per year to chronic/infectious Respiratory Disease. However, there are ~98,000 mentions of Pneumonia & Influenza on death certs.

🟢 Interestingly, Influenza is not called out separately. You can put this down to the broad generalisation of Influenza Like Illnesses (ILI’s) that induce Pneumonia like symptoms. 

This means we cannot assess the effects of Influenza SPECIFICALLY, nor understand it’s prevalence, or even if a viral infection is the root cause of all ILI deaths.

E&W Flu Season Context (oct-apr)

🟡 Within this period, we can expect to lose 330,000 people of all-causes, with 85% over 65.

🟡 We’d expect to see ~49,000 deaths caused by Respiratory Disease, and ~68,000 mentions of Pneumonia/Influenza… i.e. Influenza Like Illnesses (ILI’s).

The winter period increases susceptibility and exacerbates existing health conditions. Driven by reduced Vit D, lack of sunlight, more confinement, and lifestyle/diet shifts.

20/21 Flu Season Projections

The Graph below models two scenarios for COVID-related deaths.

COVID-19 2020 UK projections

The guiding principles of these projections are

  • Infectious Respiratory Diseases NEED compromised hosts to become serious
  • COVID-19 will DISPLACE (not add!) mortality from other ILI’s and Respiratory diseases
  • This will be about MOVING DECKCHAIRS around
  • We will test every ILI case this year, which will artificially inflate #coronavirus
  • COVID-related means any mention on a death cert – i.e. died OF and WITH
  • Seasonal Total Mortality & Total Respiratory Disease Mortality will remain stable
  • Expecting some virus strain creep, as we see with other respiratory viruses

2020 Flu Season #coronavirus projections

We WILL see an Endemic wave of COVID-related deaths

🟣 LOW END – a probable and honest number will be 9.8K deaths in 7 months

🟣 HIGH END – If we over-code and significantly displace ILI, it could look more like 19K

This is NOT DRAMATIC. It’s life. There is no need to panic, unless we see a statistically significant rise in seasonal Total Mortality.

What’s the chances of that❓…

We will not see a Second Spike!

Never in the history of virus epidemics have we witnessed a true second exponential spike from a single virus.

🆕 The only way to experience a second spike, would be a NEW VIRUS. The chances of that happening naturally are absolutely minuscule – unless one is manufactured…

Absent of a NEW VIRUS, things will be non-dramatic. Think minor wave versus scary spike.

There is however a caveat that muddies the water… increased SUSCEPTIBILITY – induced by Lockdown, Restrictions and Scaremongering.

It’s hard to tease out just how big an effect this will have on people’s health this Flu Season. 😬



SOURCE: All actual and 5YR average data taken from ONS death reports from 2015-2020. Projections modelled off of this data.

Other COVID Analysis from AdapNation

We are very active on Facebook when it comes to sharing COVID / #coronavirus facts, analysis and science. Our goal is to give people the knowledge and confidence to call out propagandised fear with analysis they can trust.

Pay our Facebook page a visit. Here are just a few pieces of analysis we’ve performed:

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