How are #COVID deaths tracking against endemic projections for this E&W Flu Season?
(This is a weekly report)
IT TRACKS FOUR THINGS:
⚫️ Total Mortality against 5YR average and +/- 1 standard deviation.
🔵 ONS COVID-related Deaths (all mentions) against expected Endemic curves.
🔴 Pneumonia/Influenza Deaths (all mentions) against the 5YR Average.
🟣 COVID + Pneumonia/Influenza Deaths against the Pneu/Inf 5YR average. **
🚨 IF ⚫️ & 🟣 materially deviate above the respective 5YR averages, then we are seeing an ADDITIONAL mortality effect from COVID-19.
**⚠️ DOUBLE COUNTING CAUTION with 🟣 Calc:
There were 18,650 JOINT mentions of Pneumonia/Influenza and COVID on death certs between 1st Jan – 31st Aug, which represent ⅓ of all Pneumonia/Influenza mentions.
THEREFORE, for 🟣 we’ve added a lower range to account for the up to 33% dual mentions.
WEEK 41:
This is the latest deaths data from ONS, w/e 9th Oct 2020.
⚫️ Total Mortality sits within expected range.
🔴 Pneumonia/Influenza mentions are down 417 (17,173 down YTD).
🔵 COVID-related deaths ARE trending above expected endemic range.
🟣 When you combine COVID with Pneumonia/Influenza, the total is ranges up to perfectly tracking the 5YR average for Infectious Respiratory Disease Deaths.
WEEK 42-43:
ONS report with a lag, to allow death registrations to be made and processed. As of today, ONS are 2 weeks behind the daily provisional data from DHSC.
🔮 So, roughly, we can leverage the DHSC 🔵 COVID-related Deaths data and make assumptions on Pneumonia/Influenza 2020 trending to see where this graph is going… (faint tails):
🔵 COVID-related deaths are deviating strongly from the expected endemic range, however, it must be placed in context with 🟣.
🟣 Dependant on how many joint mentions we are seeing on Death Certs, we could be seeing a breakout from the Pneumonia/Influenza 5YR average.
⚫️ The ultimate assessment can only be made once the weekly ONS Total Mortality figures, to see if we are experiencing an excess in mortality vs re-badging of deaths to COVID.
NET-NET:
🔀 Clearly we are coding up what would otherwise be classified as Pneumonia/Influenza as COVID-19, and potentially doing the same for unrelated fatal conditions.
Does THIS WEEKS data justify the Lockdowns and panic❓
❌ The answer is still… NO. Flu Season is playing out as expected, albeit with more respiratory disease deckchairs being swapped out.
🔬 These leading indicators are polluted by the flawed testing strategy, testing tech and poor case definition. Fix this with urgency, so we can truly assess and manage real risk.
😫 Sadly, with 20M less effective tests coming online shortly in England (with 8x high FP rate!), it’s likely to get MUCH MORE NOISY and unreliable.
#FactsNotFear #StayCalm #ContextMatters
______
SOURCES:
- ONS Weekly Deaths Data (20th Oct)
- DHSC COVID-19 Dashboard (23rd Oct)
NOTE: Projections made in early August 2020 and shared on FB. They have not and will not be altered, so they can be thoroughly evaluated.
Enjoyed the read?Comment below, and check out our longer-form Articles, our shorter Micro Blog sections, grab Healthy Meal Ideas from AdapNation Food Diary, and Free Gym Workout Plans at #HyperWorkouts. |
Leave a comment