COVID-19: Projection Tracking Update -16th Oct

2 min read

Share

Probably the most important graphic to REALLY understand regarding the developing #COVID flu season 👇🏼

🤓 You’ll need to really study this, to make sense of the various elements. It’s a weekly check-in to see how #COVID deaths are tracking against Endemic Equilibrium projections for England & Wales 20/21 Flu Season.

It’s tracking FOUR THINGS:

⚫️ Total Mortality against 5YR average.

🔵 ONS COVID-related Deaths (all mentions) against expected Endemic curves.

🔴 Pneumonia/Influenza Deaths (all mentions) against the 5YR Average.

🟣 COVID + Pneumonia/Influenza Deaths agains the Pneu/Inf 5YR average.

IF ⚫️ & 🟣 materially deviate above the respective 5YR averages, then we are seeing an ADDITIONAL mortality effect from COVID-19.

COVID-19 England Projections for Flu Season

WEEK 40:

This is the latest deaths data from ONS, w/e 2nd Oct 2020.

⚫️ There is a small excess mortality of 134.

🔴 That said, the Pneumonia/Influenza mentions are down 379 – consistent theme this year (16,756 down YTD).

🔵 In the wider view, the COVID-related deaths are trending roughly as expected, but as you zoom in you see a lower that expected valley W35-38 followed by a break through the Endemic Projected upper range.

🟣 However, when you combine COVID with Pneumonia/Influenza, you see we are STILL tracking under the 5YR average for Infectious Respiratory Disease Deaths.

WEEK 41-42:

ONS report with a lag, to allow death registrations to be made and processed.

Whereas, DHSC report on COVID-related deaths daily. So, as of today, ONS is 2 weeks behind DHSC… albeit ONS is the gold standard source for death records.

🔮 So, with a pinch of salt, we can leverage the DHSC 🔵 COVID-related Deaths data and make some assumptions on Pneumonia/Influenza 2020 trending to see where this graph is going… 👇🏼 **dashed tails**

🔵 COVID-related deaths continue to sit outside of normal Endemic ranges, however, it must be placed in context with 🟣.

🟣 Looks like we are PERFECTLY trending on the 5YR average for Infectious Respiratory Disease Deaths in week 41-42.

🔵 COVID-related deaths are continue to sit outside of normal Endemic ranges, however, it must be placed in context with 🟣.

NET-NET:

👌🏼 The data continues to say we are experiencing a NORMAL Flu Season to date. There is no need for panic.

🔀 Clearly we are coding up what would otherwise be classified as Pneumonia/Influenza as COVID-19. 

🤪 How? Well, that would be the bonkers and flawed testing strategy and unscalable tech that pollutes all the hospital and deaths data with the narrative that COVID-19 is surging.

Does this data justify the Lockdowns and panic❓

👨🏻‍🔬 The rational and scientific mind would say no, absolutely not. This is a very normal Flu Season thus far…

#FactsNotFear #StayCalm #ContextMatters

______

SOURCES:

  • ONS Weekly Deaths Data (13th Oct)
  • DHSC COVID-19 Dashboard (16th Oct)
  • NOTE: Projections made in early August 2020 and shared on FB. They have not and will not be altered, so they can be thoroughly evaluated.

 

The Original Facebook Post

Enjoyed the read?

Comment below, and check out our longer-form Articles, our shorter Micro Blog sections, grab Healthy Meal Ideas from AdapNation Food Diary, and Free Gym Workout Plans at #HyperWorkouts.

One thought on “COVID-19: Projection Tracking Update -16th Oct

Add yours

  1. Hi Steve et al,
    Great to see your newsletter and thanks for your hard work compiling everything. We have a normal flu season but the manner in which governments use the new corona to force lockdowns and vaccines is totally egregious.
    Be well.
    JIm Sheldrick

Leave a comment

%d