COVID-19: Projection Tracking Update -16th Oct

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Probably the most important graphic to REALLY understand regarding the developing #COVID flu season 👇🏼

🤓 You’ll need to really study this, to make sense of the various elements. It’s a weekly check-in to see how #COVID deaths are tracking against Endemic Equilibrium projections for England & Wales 20/21 Flu Season.

It’s tracking FOUR THINGS:

⚫️ Total Mortality against 5YR average.

🔵 ONS COVID-related Deaths (all mentions) against expected Endemic curves.

🔴 Pneumonia/Influenza Deaths (all mentions) against the 5YR Average.

🟣 COVID + Pneumonia/Influenza Deaths agains the Pneu/Inf 5YR average.

IF ⚫️ & 🟣 materially deviate above the respective 5YR averages, then we are seeing an ADDITIONAL mortality effect from COVID-19.

COVID-19 England Projections for Flu Season

WEEK 40:

This is the latest deaths data from ONS, w/e 2nd Oct 2020.

⚫️ There is a small excess mortality of 134.

🔴 That said, the Pneumonia/Influenza mentions are down 379 – consistent theme this year (16,756 down YTD).

🔵 In the wider view, the COVID-related deaths are trending roughly as expected, but as you zoom in you see a lower that expected valley W35-38 followed by a break through the Endemic Projected upper range.

🟣 However, when you combine COVID with Pneumonia/Influenza, you see we are STILL tracking under the 5YR average for Infectious Respiratory Disease Deaths.

WEEK 41-42:

ONS report with a lag, to allow death registrations to be made and processed.

Whereas, DHSC report on COVID-related deaths daily. So, as of today, ONS is 2 weeks behind DHSC… albeit ONS is the gold standard source for death records.

🔮 So, with a pinch of salt, we can leverage the DHSC 🔵 COVID-related Deaths data and make some assumptions on Pneumonia/Influenza 2020 trending to see where this graph is going… 👇🏼 **dashed tails**

🔵 COVID-related deaths continue to sit outside of normal Endemic ranges, however, it must be placed in context with 🟣.

🟣 Looks like we are PERFECTLY trending on the 5YR average for Infectious Respiratory Disease Deaths in week 41-42.

🔵 COVID-related deaths are continue to sit outside of normal Endemic ranges, however, it must be placed in context with 🟣.


👌🏼 The data continues to say we are experiencing a NORMAL Flu Season to date. There is no need for panic.

🔀 Clearly we are coding up what would otherwise be classified as Pneumonia/Influenza as COVID-19. 

🤪 How? Well, that would be the bonkers and flawed testing strategy and unscalable tech that pollutes all the hospital and deaths data with the narrative that COVID-19 is surging.

Does this data justify the Lockdowns and panic❓

👨🏻‍🔬 The rational and scientific mind would say no, absolutely not. This is a very normal Flu Season thus far…

#FactsNotFear #StayCalm #ContextMatters



  • ONS Weekly Deaths Data (13th Oct)
  • DHSC COVID-19 Dashboard (16th Oct)
  • NOTE: Projections made in early August 2020 and shared on FB. They have not and will not be altered, so they can be thoroughly evaluated.


The Original Facebook Post

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One thought on “COVID-19: Projection Tracking Update -16th Oct

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  1. Hi Steve et al,
    Great to see your newsletter and thanks for your hard work compiling everything. We have a normal flu season but the manner in which governments use the new corona to force lockdowns and vaccines is totally egregious.
    Be well.
    JIm Sheldrick

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