COVID-19 England Deaths Update – 28th Oct

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This weeks in-context #COVID deaths analysis for England, using the latestONS & DHSC data. 👇🏼

🤷🏻‍♂️ The most important question this week is… why are 🇸🇪 Sweden seeing negligible COVID-related deaths, negligible ICU admittance (3/day), declining deaths:positive tests ratios and continued deficits in total mortality?

It’s not lack of testing – they’re testing at 2/3rds the rate of UK on a per 100,000 population basis.

It’s not masks. It’s not lock downs. It’s not mandates and fines. It’s not being anti-social or obedient. it’s not population density 🥱.

It’s not messaging… in actual fact there is hardly ANY NEWS and dialog re COVID in Sweden. I’ll be discussing the distinct lack of COVID drama with an Swedish A&E physician tomorrow on the podcast. Stay tuned….

🤦🏻‍♂️ At some point, we need to accept that MOST of what we’re being subjected to in England is adding NOTHING.

😢 In actual fact, it is clear that the Govt’s meddling is causing an increase loss of life, self harm, suicides, cancers, livelihood losses, depression, anxiety, and lifestyle related declines in health.

When is enough enough❓

COVID-19 England deaths analysis October 2020

England vs Sweden COVID analysis


1️⃣ Plots weekly mortality stats for England compared to 5YR averages – COVID-related, Pneumonia/Influenza & Total Mortality. Includes Sweden to compare to alternative Govt approach. 

  🔸Total Mortality has pierced the acceptable range, creating an excess. We must monitor this closely, and better understand the drivers – e.g. ill health and suicide vs COVID.

  🔸Pneumonia & Influenza deaths continue to follow the 2020 trend of being significantly below the 5YR Average. 410 fewer this week.

2️⃣ Daily COVID & Pneumonia/Influenza Deaths, tracked against the Pneumonia 5YR average and highlighting the mask mandates.

  🔸COVID-related deaths continue to increase, as expected within the flu season, but clearly are being over-coded.

  🔸Unless the poor Testing Strategy, Testing Tech, and Case Definition are fundamentally transformed – expect increased over-reporting.

3️⃣ Comparing E&W Total Mortality to 5YR average, both with and without COVID-related deaths included.

  🔸For the first time, excess mortality equates to the COVID-related deaths. Again, we need closer deaths data inspection before we can attribute excess to COVID.

4️⃣ Tracking the ratio between COVID-related Deaths and Positive PCR Tests for SARS CoV2.

  🔸SARS CoV2 maintains its low virulence after the epidemic finished in May, with the slightest uptick. This is as expected due to the Flu Season.

5️⃣ Comparing the percentage of total deaths that are attributable to COVID-related, Pneumonia/Influenza & COVID+Pneu/Inf causes (with range to account for dual mentioning).

  🔸After 3 months being below the 5YR average, the onset of the Flu Season has returned the country to expected levels of infectious respiratory disease deaths when #covid and Pneumonia/Influenza are combined.

Comment below if you have any questions or improvement requests for this weekly AdapNation update.




data from ONS’ weekly deaths publication, combined with COVID testing data from DHSC, and supplemented with Swedish COVID-related deaths data from FHM. All dated 28th October 2020.


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