COVID-19 England Deaths Update – 22nd Oct

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This weeks in-context #COVID deaths analysis for England, using the freshest ONS & DHSC data. 👇🏼


1️⃣ (NEW) Plots weekly mortality stats for England compared to 5YR averages – COVID-related, Pneumonia/Influenza & Total Mortality. Includes Sweden to compare to alternative Govt approach. 

  🔸Total Mortality sits within the expected 1 standard deviation from the 5YR average for week 41, and has maintained a normal behaviour since June.

  🔸Pneumonia & Influenza deaths continue to follow the 2020 trend of being significantly below the 5YR Average. 417 fewer this week (-26%) and 17,173 fewer so far this year.

2️⃣ Daily COVID & Pneumonia/Influenza Deaths, tracked against the Pneumonia 5YR average and highlighting the mask mandates.

  🔸COVID-related deaths continue to increase, as expected within the flu season, but clearly are being over-coded.

  🔸Unless the poor Testing Strategy, Testing Tech, and Case Definition are fundamentally transformed – expect increased over-reporting.

3️⃣ Comparing E&W Total Mortality to 5YR average, both with and without COVID-related deaths included.

  🔸Continuing to demonstrate a typical year, albeit the typical volume of acute respiratory disease deaths are being allocated to COVID-19.

4️⃣ Tracking the ratio between COVID-related Deaths and Positive PCR Tests for SARS CoV2.

  🔸SARS CoV2 maintains its low virulence after the epidemic finished in May. 

  🔸We should expect a minor upswing as we get deeper into the Flu Season – due to weather & lifestyle changes tipping people into the susceptible category, and more favourable conditions for viral mobility .

5️⃣ Comparing the percentage of total deaths that are attributable to COVID-related, Pneumonia/Influenza & COVID+Pneu/Inf causes.

  🔸After 3 months being below the 5YR average, the onset of the Flu Season has returned the country to expected levels of infectious respiratory disease deaths when #covid and Pneumonia/Influenza are combined.

COVID-19 England Update 22nd October 2020

COVID-19 England Update 22nd October 2020

Hopefully these graphs and analysis makes sense. Comment below if you have any questions or improvement requests for this weekly AdapNation update.




data from ONS’ weekly deaths publication, combined with COVID testing data from DHSC, and supplemented with Swedish COVID-related deaths data from FHM. All dated 22nd October 2020.


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