COVID-19 England Deaths Update – 22nd Oct

This weeks in-context #COVID deaths analysis for England, using the freshest ONS & DHSC data. 👇🏼

5 GRAPHS:

1️⃣ (NEW) Plots weekly mortality stats for England compared to 5YR averages – COVID-related, Pneumonia/Influenza & Total Mortality. Includes Sweden to compare to alternative Govt approach. 

  🔸Total Mortality sits within the expected 1 standard deviation from the 5YR average for week 41, and has maintained a normal behaviour since June.

  🔸Pneumonia & Influenza deaths continue to follow the 2020 trend of being significantly below the 5YR Average. 417 fewer this week (-26%) and 17,173 fewer so far this year.

2️⃣ Daily COVID & Pneumonia/Influenza Deaths, tracked against the Pneumonia 5YR average and highlighting the mask mandates.

  🔸COVID-related deaths continue to increase, as expected within the flu season, but clearly are being over-coded.

  🔸Unless the poor Testing Strategy, Testing Tech, and Case Definition are fundamentally transformed – expect increased over-reporting.

3️⃣ Comparing E&W Total Mortality to 5YR average, both with and without COVID-related deaths included.

  🔸Continuing to demonstrate a typical year, albeit the typical volume of acute respiratory disease deaths are being allocated to COVID-19.

4️⃣ Tracking the ratio between COVID-related Deaths and Positive PCR Tests for SARS CoV2.

  🔸SARS CoV2 maintains its low virulence after the epidemic finished in May. 

  🔸We should expect a minor upswing as we get deeper into the Flu Season – due to weather & lifestyle changes tipping people into the susceptible category, and more favourable conditions for viral mobility .

5️⃣ Comparing the percentage of total deaths that are attributable to COVID-related, Pneumonia/Influenza & COVID+Pneu/Inf causes.

  🔸After 3 months being below the 5YR average, the onset of the Flu Season has returned the country to expected levels of infectious respiratory disease deaths when #covid and Pneumonia/Influenza are combined.

Hopefully these graphs and analysis makes sense. Comment below if you have any questions or improvement requests for this weekly AdapNation update.

#FactsNotFear

_____

SOURCES:

data from ONS’ weekly deaths publication, combined with COVID testing data from DHSC, and supplemented with Swedish COVID-related deaths data from FHM. All dated 22nd October 2020.

The Original Facebook Post