When #VaccineVictory & increasing all-age vaccine acceptance is the ultimate goal, timing is critically important…👇🏼
👁 Take your time on this Infographic. Read the text. Work through each element. Think about the ideas being shared here and let me know your thoughts.
↙️ By the third week in Jan, we should see total mortality spike (in part due to standard Xmas delays), and deaths will then fall off at a reasonable clip. The bottom left graph shows the standard pattern for England.
🌧 The undulation of weekly deaths across the nation is down to weather changes, that cause a series of lifestyle, biological and environmental changes that decline public health and increase transmission vectors for respiratory pathogens.
↘️ You can see the effect of respiratory virus prevalence in the bottom right graph – pay specific attention to Coronaviruses, RSV and Influenza.
Opportunistic Timing…. is Essential
🤔 All the above limits the opportunity to maintain a #casedemic, maintain a NHS Acute crisis, and maintain COVID PCR Positive Deaths Stats…
📉 So, if you want Global & National leadership to be the victors out of this utter mess (not to mention the Pharma industry and investors), vaccine trials, rushed temp approval, and unprecedented immunisation efforts HAD to begin at a point where the vaccine “immune value” aligns with the total mortality and respiratory virus decline.
💉 And that’s exactly what we have. The AZ/Oxford vaccine was ALWAYS going to be ready for a crazy Jan-March push.
🤦🏻♂️ Time is of the essence. Hence the FIRST DOSE only pivot (within 12w) that benefits from no clinical trial empirical data.
🕑 They need ~90% of over 65’s jabbed by end Jan, and for a decent dent in the 45-65 bracket by end Feb (especially those with chronic conditions and obesity issues).
🌈 They also need to have some limited numbers in the younger categories too – to help “showcase” safety to the growing population of those hesitant and cautious to be vaccinated with an experimental drug that is empirically superfluous.
💉 Of course, they need to keep an eye on attaining the 60% “Herd Immunity” immunised target – a classic piece of Vaccine Propaganda that only relates to vaccines, apparently. But, that’s absolutely not possible in winter. I doubt it’s achievable full stop given the public caution and distrust.
What a rollout will likely look like
💭 So, with all that in mind, I’ve put down some hypotheticals in the top two charts and associated age-structure table.
↖️ The top left graph charts anticipated weekly vaccinations of mostly the Az/Oxford vaccine, and how that relates to proportion of population vaccinated.
It accounts for Govt aspirations, age group volumes in the most-vulnerable categories, realistic scaled throughput, and when you can expect more public resistance.
🧮 The table shows the percentages and volumes of people per age group a speculate they will have had immunised with the first dose by end of Feb – again focused on the JCVI priorities and the increased resistance as you get to those who are savvy with the internet and can self-education.
💭 I speculate ~21M (30-36%) of England Vaccinated by End Feb. Just in time to to take advantage of seasonal hospital pressure beginning to subside.
And when it comes to health fall out…
↗️ The top right graph is an interesting thought experiment. In a report by the CDC after the first week of the Pfizer COVID vaccine US rollout, they observed a fair amount of Health Impact Events that were serious enough to prevent working and/or needed some care from a healthcare professional.
🤒 It averaged at 2.36% of those vaccinated having Health Impact Events.
😳 So, if we apply that to the first three weeks of England Vaccine rollout (~780K vaccinated), we’d expect 18.5K Vaccine-induced Health Events in December.
🤷🏻♂️ Who knows – maybe this has been a material contribution to those turning up at Hospitals over the last few weeks.
😬 Moreover, if we extrapolate this outcome out as we scale up the England vaccination effort, we can see a significant amount of weekly Health Impact Events – made worse by the winter/flu season.
🤷🏻♂️ How many of those will become hospital admissions of some sort of another? How many of those will be followed by death? I don’t know… but neither does anyone else.
Watch this space
👀 SO… I guess all we can do is watch this space.
⏰ Oh, and to set your clock for the #VaccineVictory speech in a couple months time. Plus a few Govt pats on the back in press briefings starting late Jan.
Current vaccination numbers from PHE COVID Dashboard. Health Impact Events stats from CDC. Population structure from ONS. 5YR average England Mortality from ONS. Respiratory virus seasonality from Paris PLOS journal research paper.
Enjoyed the read?