The Discordance Between Lockdowns & Deaths

3 min read


🤷🏻‍♂️ When met with such discordance – where do you go? Do you double down and defend your beliefs, or do you have the mental flexibility to get scientifically honest?

👩🏻‍🎓The Blavatnik School of Government is one of Oxford Uni’s departments – they combine academic rigour with an applied, real-world focus.

👌🏼Since March, they have been tracking all government COVID measures and responses across 180 countries. Their dataset is thorough and pretty detailed. 

You can view their tracker and/or download their raw data within the link in the comment below.👇🏼

Their overall measure is the COVID Stringency Index – a score out of 100 to assess the overall demand and strength of a governments COVID actions.


📈 Below, we’ve mapped the UK Stringency Index against SARS CoV PCR Positive Cases and Deaths.

🔐 All three Lockdowns have been annotated, in addition to the tough escalating tiering restrictions that led to Lockdown 2 and 3.

Lockdown 1, during the Epidemic itself, had a sharp daily death peak 20 days after the onset – just like almost all other Northern Temperate countries irrespective of their approach (e.g. Sweden).

In actual fact, Nobel Laureate Michael Levitt tried to warn Imperial College and the UK Govt before Lockdown 1 explaining that the Deaths rate-of-change was decelerating BEFORE tougher measures were introduced.

🚨 During Lockdown 1 we had a number of events that should have messed things up royally. BLM Protests, Lockdown protests, packed beaches, and retail staff working throughout without masks.

And yet… the Epidemic petered out no matter what us humans did. Loosening restriction had absolutely no effect on deaths and cases.

🤫 It’s almost as if we have next to NO CONTROL over nature. Viruses are going to virus…

UK COVID Lockdowns vs Deaths and Cases


Fast forward to today, 11 months in to the hysteria, and what do we see❓

🤷🏻‍♂️ Well, if our Lockdown and shutdown of the NHS was so effective, then how are multiple subsequent attempts at Lockdowns having NO effect?

We’re 85 days in to the super tough package of measures that were scaled up at the back of October, with a tiny pseudo-rest bite in between. Oh, and we’ve got another 30-60 of this to go…

❓Where’s this sharp peak and fall of the spring?

😷 And let’s remind ourselves that we have had persistent and escalating measures  in place from the moment they dropped mandatory mask wearing on public transport in mid June.

Unlike the Spring where we had relatively nothing in place prior to Lockdown 1, we’ve now gone from restrictive and disruptive measures, to super restrictive measures – i.e. an index of 68 to 75-80.

On top of that, this time round we have 9 months of experience in the NHS, better treatments, more medical supplies, mass neuroticism around hand cleanliness, and the public by and large avoiding each other by default nationally.

So, what gives❓


The best scientifically sound and historically consistent explanation for the sharp decline in April is: 

1️⃣ The most vulnerable quickly fell prey to the virus and heavy restrictions in the NHS

2️⃣ As this virus has relatively low virulence, it burnt through the susceptible population quickly, having done so PRIOR to lockdown starting

3️⃣ The above two conditions created combined prior and acquired immunity levels high enough to burn out the viruses run on our population

4️⃣ Seasonal weather changes slammed the breaks on escalating infections, as Coronaviruses wane in prevalence from feb onwards

Prior to 2020, even the WHO, Fauci, John Hopkins Uni, and other notable figures agreed that Lockdowns were an ineffective to in pandemic response…


So, what say you❓

I fully expect a lot of mental gymnastics and hand waving as Lockdown proponents wrestle with this discordance. I get it. At some point though, we must stop the excuses and get totally honest with ourselves.

❓Really – Honestly – do you believe that Lockdowns are both effective, necessary, and worth the costs?

If the answer is yes, please provide the empirical evidence to support your claim. Maybe there is a Lockdown smoking gun analysis I’ve yet to see that robustly opposes the 29 research papers and growing that pour cold water over Lockdowns.👇🏼





PHE Coronavirus Dashboard and COVID Govt Response Tracker

Link to Govt Response Tracker in the comment below 👇🏼



The Original Facebook Post

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