It’s important to not conflate the passed epidemic of spring with the here are now… 👇🏼
These two graphs visualise how many excess deaths we’ve witnessed every week in 2020 over and above the expected 8-13K deaths a week.
🔼 The above graph calculates excess deaths by comparing to the 5 year average.
🔽 The bottom graph calculates excess deaths by comparing to the maximum weekly figures over the last 5 years.
Both calculations have merit, as the former helps understand how non-average this year has been, and the latter looks to see if we’ve experienced worse conditions in the recent past.
There’s no denying that the combination of a pathogenic insult combined with the severe restriction in effective health care hit us hard between W13-18, with a normalising of death pressure by W23.
The Epidemic in England ended at the end of May. Since then, what we are now seeing is normal health and life pressures, with the added burden of govt restrictions causing accelerated health decline.
As you can see, when you omit the Epidemic peak (W13-22), excess deaths are effectively zero at 634. Moreover, we are 13,000 away from the most extreme (whilst still mild) experiences of the lat 5 years when you again omit the peak.
ONS England Weekly Deaths data 17th Nov 2020
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