How COVID Mass Surveillance is doomed: 62-99% false positives

⚠️IMPORTANT: 62-99% of English Post-Epidemic #COVID19 reported deaths could be false.

😳 There is a BIG problem with Mass Surveillance #coronavirus testing when the prevalence is low in the community.

ℹ️ The RT PCR test is reported to be 99.0 – 99.5% accurate in detecting a couple of unique SARS CoV2 viral RNA fragments. That’s highly accurate if you are testing people who have a cluster of clear symptoms and the prevalence is high in those being testing.

👍🏼 As in… in March-April, when majority of testing was in NHS settings and there was a flood of symptomatic patients, we can say that todays test would be highly reliable. Reliable in identifying true cases & certifying those who died WITH COVID.

😬 BUT… when community prevalence drops, and we proactively test those without symptoms, the weakness of the test and the approach is exposed.

We know we are testing LOTS of non-symptomatic people:

• Healthcare Workers
• Non-COVID NHS Patients
• Contact Traced individuals
• Repeat Home Surveillance (ramping up to 400K per fortnight)

Things go wonky quickly

We’re testing about 136,000 people daily in England, of which 21 will die daily from a plethora of causes. As many of these people are non-symptomatic, the data goes wonky…

🔸 We’re producing about 2,000 cases (Positive Tests) a day.

🔸 680 of which are false positives (0.5% of 136K)

🔸 560 will not have or develop symptoms

🔸 Of the 760 who develop symptoms (38%), only ~23 (~3%)  end up in hospital due to COVID-19 or other issues

🔸 The current survival rate in the hospital is pretty good, but let’s ignore that stat for now

🔸 We have ~2000 people who are tagged as having COVID-19, but only ~1% of those will end up in the hospital, and only a portion of those will unfortunately die

🔸 So, the headline ISSUE is 62-99% of people that make up the COVID-19 death statistics could be ***FALSE***❗️

Welcome #casedemic

See, the testing technology combined with it’s current use model makes it HIGHLY likely to do things:

1️⃣ Create a fake #casdemic❗️

2️⃣ Create an illusion of COVID-related deaths❗️

👁 Moreover, check this out. The weekly Positive Test Prevalence has never gone lower than 0.46% and has averaged at 0.63% since June…

⚠️ When the False Positive Rate of the test is ~0.5%, that means that we will NEVER materially dip under 0.5% Prevalence, and that most of the ‘Cases’ are BOGUS.

This stops when we realise the game…

🔄 You might want to RE-READ this post a few times. It sounds complicated, and the Govt are banking on you not getting it. But if you do get it… the #COVIDfarce is exposed.

N.B. of course, if the UK Govt change the test or the use of the test (which they MUST), then some of these data issues can be reduced.

🤬 BUT, with a goal to get to 2M – 4M tests weekly by December, we know how this story is going to go….

#GotYourNumber #TimeToCallBS #FactsNotFear

SOURCES: ONS Infection Survey, PHE COVID figures & ONS Weekly Deaths data.

The Original Facebook Post