This is interesting. Spring 2020 hit us hard. Dec-20’s rebound after 2 record-low years is epidemiologically consistent 👇🏼
The below graph maps ONS monthly data published 18th Jan 2021.
😔 Last year so an outsized impact on population mortality in March-April due to the SARS CoV2 outbreak and the shutting down of non-COVID healthcare.
Last year also saw the lowest August total mortality on record. Population mortality very much follows a pendulum effect.
ℹ️ If there is an outsized reduction of the susceptible population in a given month/year – assuming we do not further exacerbate the problem by worsening public health – we see a trough in mortality to follow.
😮 Last year’s December was higher than the last few years, but on par with 2014, as well as ’08, ’09 and ’10. Before those dates all years would have been higher.
〰️ Moreover, after two record low years, a bounce back of sorts is epidemiologically expected.
We see a similar bounce back phenomenon in Dec 2003, Dec 2008 and Dec 2014.
🥵 Perhaps the bounce back is a little higher than expected – due to public health decline, a seriously handicapped NHS, experimental vaccine rollout, and a robust winter of respiratory infections in 2020.
As we solve for infant mortality and we find ways to keep people alive for longer – as we have done over the last 60 years – you can expect age-standardised mortality to keep dropping.
BUT, there is a natural floor… because there is a natural limit to human lifespan.
ℹ️ In ~2018, it was declared that for the first time ever, we can expect our children to live shorter lives than us. Why?
⬇︎ Modern lifestyle factors including processed food, stress, drugs/medicine, mental health decline, environmental pollution, plastic toxicity etc. And, naturally, the reality that we are on average living as long as we can as natural humans.
So, as we reflect on 2020 from a Total Mortality perspective, the data does not lie. We had a tough Spring. Thereafter, however, there is nothing material to write about… statistically.
Jan 2021 is looking to be statistically higher too, but we MUST factor in the toll the last 12 months of policy burdens on healthcare, public health, mental health and economic anxiety. In addition to a large scale experimental biologics rollout.
ONS Monthly Mortality Analysis up to Dec 2020 (published 18th Jan 2021)
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