Influenza vs COVID – what does the ONS data tell us?

So what to make of the ONS Influenza vs #COVID data released y’day? Stop the flu vaccines?

🤔 The headline from this special one-off bulletin seems contrived. Yes, that seems cynical, but the goal here was to leave the public with the simple message…

…”COVID has a much higher fatality rate than Flu, and unlike Flu, it is the primary driver of death.” ❗️

🤥 Sounds scary. Shame it’s an absolute lie. Sounds bold, but let me explain why.

It comes down to fundamentally different means of reporting and registering death data – and the ONS & Govt know this is an 🍎 vs 🍊 compare.

1️⃣ WE DON’T REPORT ON INFLUENZA:

🤧 Serious respiratory infections typically cause Pneumonia. 

Globally, death registrars often count “influenza and pneumonia” together because the causal pathogen is seldom identified. 

Really, this is WHO-instructed shorthand for Pneumonia caused by a pathogen of some sort… but conveniently it’s referred to as Flu/Influenza.

It’s important to note that Community Acquired Pneumonia (CAP) is the 5th leading cause of death in the Over 65’s in the US.

👀 Take a look at the two Death Cert entries in the graphic below. Influenza is seldom mentioned as Involved or the Underlying Cause of Death, as that would require proof. 👇🏼

Pneumonia, on the other hand, is a diseased state that is well defined, and does not infer in the name a specific pathogen.

2️⃣ MOST COMMON CAUSES OF PNEUMONIA:

😲 Whilst we make the assertion that all Pneumonia is pathogen-induced – specifically Influenza – causative organisms are only identified in 5–20% of CAP cases in the elderly (!)

That said, Streptococcus pneumoniae (bacteria) remains the single most common organism identified in hospitalised elderly patients, accounting for 19–58% of cases. Haemophilus influenzae (bacteria) accounts for 5–14% of CAP in the elderly population

🏨 It also turns out that overuse of antibiotics and other medical procedures is driving up escalating levels of healthcare-associated pneumonia.

Moreover, whilst Infections seems to be the dominant trigger event for Pneumonia, it’s the underlying state of the individuals that creates the environment for infection. 

Conditions such as COPD, immunosuppression, smoking, congestive heart failure, diabetes, malignancy and previous hospitalisations for CAP are risk factors for developing the disease.

Illness including congestive heart failure, cerebrovascular disease and chronic liver disease, combined with ineffective therapy, are strongly associated with higher mortality from CAP among the elderly.

3️⃣ WHAT ABOUT VIRUSES?:

Influenza A or B, parainfluenza and RSV are other pathogens to be considered in elderly CAP patients. 

❌ However, sensitivity of available screening tests is poor, and clinical treatment decisions should not be based on the results of rapid flu testing  – a practice that is not evidence based.

*Fungi of various sorts seems to be a cause of CAP too.

4️⃣ WHAT ABOUT CORONAVIRUSES?:

🦠 Interestingly, Coronaviruses are SELDOM referenced in the medical literature as a likely pathogen to induce Pneumonia.

They are considered a less common cause of CAP, with at least 8 types of bacteria and viruses more likely to cause issue.

That’s odd, isn’t it? 🤔

5️⃣ SO FLU ISN’T THE BIG KILLER?:

What is undeniable, is that elderly die from respiratory diseases – either infectious in nature or chronic injuries.

🤧 In a lazy/convenient manner, or perhaps even manipulative in support of mass flu-vaccination programmes, we describe winter infections and associated deaths non-clinically as Flu or Influenza.

Yet, when the rubber meets the road, this is seldom noted on death certificates, due to lack of proof. 🤫

6️⃣ AND THEN 2020 HAPPENED:

HOWEVER, this year, due to mass testing and an undeniable short sharp epidemic, everyone with Respiratory Infections is being tested for SARS CoV2 presence.

🤕 For the most part these serious infections will present Pneumonia, and that may progress to the more serious Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS).

And because COVID-19 has been declared a notifiable disease, it’s getting coded up into all death certs with a positive test (or strong suspicion).

You often see it mentioned as ‘COVID-19 Pneumonia’. We don’t, however, mention ‘Influenza Pneumonia’ on death certs…

The data from the ONS report confirms these issues – see the three charts below. 👇🏼

Influenza is basically not mentioned, but Pneumonia (labelled as Influenza & Pneumonia on ONS reports) is prevalent. However, it’s only noted as the primary cause of death 20% of the time… 

Furthermore, this year Pneumonia & Influenza show up on death certs significantly lower than the 5 year average. The only reasonable conclusion is that Pneumonia has been replaced by COVID-19 Pneumonia. 🤔

😲 Oh, and in the 18,650 deaths where both Influenza/Pneumonia and COVID-19 are mentioned… only EIGHT declared Influenza/Pneumonia as the Underlying Cause.

Strange that…

7️⃣ THE BOTTOM LINE:

👎🏼 This ONS report is next to useless, other than declaring that we clearly don’t have a robust practice for confidently identifying Influenza infections that lead to death.

🙄 And, they are conflating the Endemic state of COVID-19 with the 2-month Epidemic peak data – therefore massively artificially inflating the CURRENT risk profile.

😈 Playing devils advocate, this report suggests:

🔹(A) Clearly Influenza is not the killer it is being made out to be, and we should stop all Flu Vaccinations globally with immediate effect.

OR

🔹(B) There is gross under reporting of Influenza or other Viral infections on death certificates due to ineffective/inadequate testing and/or insufficient death registration training.

❓What do you make of all of this info?

#FactsNotFer

_______

SOURCES:

• ONS FLU BULLETIN, 8TH OCTOBER
• PAPER, PNEUMONIA IN ELDERLY PATIENTS

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